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The next graph shows real GDP for Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the US starting in 2003, when Doyle took office. Would excluding the Doyle years help Wisconsin’s Performance rating? To answer this question requires a look at the three measures used to calculate the Performance rating: gross domestic product (GDP), net migration of state residents, and jobs growth. Jim Doyle years.Ĭurtis and Flanders, however, make no attempt to verify this assertion. Here, the better performance of the Walker years is dragged down by the far worse performance of the preceding Gov. More fundamentally, because the performance measure is based on ten-year data, it will tend to lag changes in the outlook measure. Curtis and Flanders’ main response to this problem is to blame Walker’s predecessor: On Performance, Wisconsin has been stuck around 40th place since before Walker was governor. However, that change has not generated a similar gain in the ALEC Performance score. Reflecting Walker’s policies, ALEC rates Wisconsin as 14th best in Outlook. This belief underlies the ill-fated tax reductions in Kansas, the current GOP tax proposals, and the Walker agenda. Underlying these policies is a belief that prosperity is caused by wealthy people and depends on low labor costs.
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For example, Wisconsin is rewarded for lacking an estate tax and a minimum wage, and for its right-to-work law weakening unions. Generally, ALEC rates a state more highly for policies that make wealthy people wealthier and keeps labor cheap. The policies going into the Outlook score track the current right-wing policy agenda. The other is a “Performance” scale, based on how the state has performed over the past ten years on three measures: state gross domestic product, absolute domestic migration of state residents, and non-farm payroll employment. One is an “Outlook” scale based on how well a state conforms to ALEC’s policy prescriptions. Every year, it publishes a report, called Rich States Poor States, that rates states on two measures. That Wisconsin hasn’t done as well as most of these states is documented in a report from ALEC itself. Today, after seven more years of recovery, practically every state’s economy is in much better shape than it was seven years ago. In January 2011, when Walker entered office, both the national and Wisconsin economies were just starting their second year of recovery from the Great Recession. This “then/now” argument used by Walker and the WILL writers assumes the reader is completely ignorant of what else was happening at the time. “When Scott Walker was sworn in as Wisconsin’s 45th governor in January 2011,” they say, “the state’s economic performance during the previous eight years had been dismal, and the outlook was worse.” This argument closing parallels a recent Walker opinion piece in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel supporting the Trump tax plan: “When I took office in 2011, the people of our state were suffering from record job loss …” Today, Walker adds, “Our state’s economy is growing …” To do this, Curtis and Flanders adopt Walker’s favorite argument– comparing today’s Wisconsin economy with the economy when Walker entered office.
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The authors’ apparent aim is two-fold: defending Walker’s record on the Wisconsin economy and the agenda advocated by ALEC. The post was in response to my April Data Wonk column, ALEC and Wisconsin’s Economy, which pointed out that Wisconsin’s improved “Outlook” score from the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) since Walker took office was not accompanied by a better Performance score from the same organization. It’s written by by Jake Curtis and Will Flanders, two staff members at the Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty’s (WILL) Center for Competitive Federalism. If one types the words “Walker Wisconsin Economy” into a search engine, among the first page results are a link to a post for The Federalist entitled Yes, Scott Walker Did Back Wisconsin’s Economy Away From A Cliff. Photo by Kate Golden of the Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism.